{
 "date": "2026-10-07",
 "index": 3.9,
 "band": "watch",
 "coverage_pct": 100.0,
 "missing": [],
 "n_components": 29,
 "n_scored": 29,
 "overlay": {
  "score": 4.2,
  "firing": [
   "CCC-and-lower high-yield OAS",
   "MOVE bond-vol index"
  ],
  "members": [
   "SOFR minus IORB (repo plumbing)",
   "Financial CP minus 3m T-bill",
   "CCC-and-lower high-yield OAS",
   "Stablecoin peg deviation (worst of USDC/USDT)",
   "MOVE bond-vol index",
   "VIX / VIX3M term structure",
   "Auction bid-to-cover, 10y + 30y",
   "Indirect bidders' share, 10y + 30y",
   "Regional-bank equity (KRE) drawdown",
   "Long-end yield velocity, 5 sessions"
  ],
  "note": "acute-channel overlay: 0 at every watch level, 10 when any acute channel reaches alert. Reported separately; it never changes the headline number."
 },
 "degraded": false,
 "stale": [],
 "components": [
  {
   "cat": "rates",
   "name": "30y Treasury yield",
   "value": 5.64,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 8.9,
   "band": "acute",
   "calm": 4.0,
   "watch": 5.25,
   "alert": 5.75,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "treasury.gov par curve / FRED DGS30",
   "why": "the price the market demands for long US debt",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "rates",
   "name": "10y Treasury yield",
   "value": 5.27,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 7.6,
   "band": "alert",
   "calm": 2.0,
   "watch": 4.5,
   "alert": 6.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "treasury.gov par curve / FRED DGS10",
   "why": "benchmark funding cost for everything else",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "rates",
   "name": "5y5y forward inflation",
   "value": 2.35,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 0.8,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 2.3,
   "watch": 2.6,
   "alert": 3.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED T5YIFR",
   "why": "long-run inflation anchor - if it de-anchors, inflating the debt away stops working",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "rates",
   "name": "Long-end yield velocity, 5 sessions",
   "value": 3.0,
   "unit": "bp 5d",
   "score": 0.0,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 10.0,
   "watch": 40.0,
   "alert": 80.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED DGS10 / DGS30",
   "why": "how FAST long yields are moving - the shape of the LDI and 2020-type events",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "fiscal",
   "name": "Net interest / federal receipts",
   "value": 21.13,
   "unit": "% of receipts",
   "score": 8.4,
   "band": "acute",
   "calm": 12.0,
   "watch": 17.0,
   "alert": 23.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED A091RC1Q027SBEA / FGRECPT",
   "why": "Dalio's spiral metric - interest eating the revenue",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "fiscal",
   "name": "Federal debt / GDP",
   "value": 123.6,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 7.2,
   "band": "alert",
   "calm": 95.0,
   "watch": 115.0,
   "alert": 135.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "Treasury Debt to the Penny (daily) / FRED GDP",
   "why": "the stock that has to be rolled and refinanced",
   "asof": "2026-10-05",
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "fiscal",
   "name": "Deficit, annualized from monthly",
   "value": 6.15,
   "unit": "% of GDP",
   "score": 7.9,
   "band": "alert",
   "calm": 3.0,
   "watch": 5.0,
   "alert": 7.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED MTSDS133FMS (monthly, annualized) / GDP",
   "why": "how fast the debt is still being added, on a MONTHLY source rather than the old annual figure",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "fiscal",
   "name": "Effective r minus g",
   "value": -2.78,
   "unit": "pp",
   "score": 2.0,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": -4.0,
   "watch": -1.0,
   "alert": 1.5,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "Treasury FiscalData avg_interest_rates vs FRED GDP",
   "why": "the master debt-dynamics condition: above zero, debt/GDP grows even with a balanced budget",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "fiscal",
   "name": "Refinancing gap: effective coupon vs 10y",
   "value": 1.74,
   "unit": "pp",
   "score": 8.7,
   "band": "acute",
   "calm": 0.5,
   "watch": 1.0,
   "alert": 2.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "Treasury FiscalData avg_interest_rates vs FRED DGS10",
   "why": "the interest increase ALREADY locked in as the debt rolls",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "fiscal",
   "name": "Bill share of marketable debt",
   "value": 22.36,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 3.0,
   "band": "watch",
   "calm": 20.0,
   "watch": 24.0,
   "alert": 28.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "Treasury FiscalData MSPD table 1 (monthly)",
   "why": "bills roll every few months, so any funding wobble compounds instead of being absorbed by time",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "foreign",
   "name": "China's Treasury holdings, 12m change",
   "value": -69.7,
   "unit": "$bn 12m",
   "score": 2.6,
   "band": "watch",
   "calm": -25.0,
   "watch": -110.0,
   "alert": -220.0,
   "direction": -1,
   "source": "FRED FORTREASPOS41408 (monthly, ~6-week lag)",
   "why": "the strategic buyer who will not respond to yield - at an 18-year low",
   "asof": "2026-07-01",
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "credit",
   "name": "US high-yield OAS",
   "value": 3.12,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 3.1,
   "band": "watch",
   "calm": 2.5,
   "watch": 3.5,
   "alert": 5.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2",
   "why": "credit repricing leads sovereign stress (BB/B dominated)",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "credit",
   "name": "CCC-and-lower high-yield OAS",
   "value": 12.11,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 7.1,
   "band": "alert",
   "calm": 7.0,
   "watch": 10.0,
   "alert": 15.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED BAMLH0A3HYC (history starts Oct 2023)",
   "why": "the weakest borrowers lose market access first - the tail leads the average",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "credit",
   "name": "Fed primary credit, weekly change vs 13w avg",
   "value": -1867.0,
   "unit": "$mn",
   "score": 0.2,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": -2000.0,
   "watch": 2000.0,
   "alert": 10000.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "Federal Reserve H.4.1 release (scraped, weekly)",
   "why": "discount-window borrowing is the bank-funding first mover - it jumped within a week in Mar 2020 and Mar 2023, and it is the channel this index was blind to",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "credit",
   "name": "Financial CP minus 3m T-bill",
   "value": 3.0,
   "unit": "bp",
   "score": 0.0,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 20.0,
   "watch": 60.0,
   "alert": 150.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED DCPF3M / DTB3",
   "why": "fires first in a bank-confidence problem; was 373bp in Oct 2008 and 210bp in Mar 2020",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "credit",
   "name": "Regional-bank equity (KRE) drawdown",
   "value": -10.09,
   "unit": "% from 52w high",
   "score": 0.9,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": -8.0,
   "watch": -20.0,
   "alert": -35.0,
   "direction": -1,
   "source": "Yahoo KRE",
   "why": "bank-equity stress moves first in a run - the Mar 2023 first mover this index had lost",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "credit",
   "name": "Private-credit proxy (BIZD) drawdown",
   "value": -18.6,
   "unit": "% from 52w high",
   "score": 4.4,
   "band": "watch",
   "calm": -8.0,
   "watch": -20.0,
   "alert": -35.0,
   "direction": -1,
   "source": "Yahoo BIZD",
   "why": "private-credit marks are quarterly, so the listed vehicle is the only live read on that risk",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "funding",
   "name": "SOFR minus IORB (repo plumbing)",
   "value": -1.0,
   "unit": "bp",
   "score": 0.0,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 2.0,
   "watch": 10.0,
   "alert": 25.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED SOFR / IORB",
   "why": "when repo clears above the Fed's floor, cash is scarce - the Sep 2019 repo spike came from here",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "funding",
   "name": "Stablecoin float, 90-day change",
   "value": 1.86,
   "unit": "% 90d",
   "score": 0.2,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 2.0,
   "watch": -2.0,
   "alert": -8.0,
   "direction": -1,
   "source": "DefiLlama stablecoincharts (keyless, daily)",
   "why": "the float IS offshore dollar demand - a contracting float means dollars are scarce and tokens are being redeemed",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "funding",
   "name": "Stablecoin peg deviation (worst of USDC/USDT)",
   "value": 0.8,
   "unit": "bp below $1",
   "score": 0.0,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 20.0,
   "watch": 100.0,
   "alert": 300.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "CoinGecko simple/price (keyless)",
   "why": "a dollar token trading below par is a live dollar squeeze - USDC hit $0.88 in March 2023",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "absorption",
   "name": "Auction bid-to-cover, 10y + 30y",
   "value": 2.46,
   "unit": "x",
   "score": 2.3,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 2.6,
   "watch": 2.3,
   "alert": 2.0,
   "direction": -1,
   "source": "Treasury FiscalData auctions_query",
   "why": "cover is the first place waning end-user demand shows up",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "absorption",
   "name": "Indirect bidders' share, 10y + 30y",
   "value": 71.5,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 0.0,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 70.0,
   "watch": 62.0,
   "alert": 55.0,
   "direction": -1,
   "source": "Treasury FiscalData auctions_query",
   "why": "foreign and fund demand stepping back means the dealers eat the supply - absorption failing",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "market",
   "name": "MOVE bond-vol index",
   "value": 105.2,
   "unit": "index",
   "score": 5.9,
   "band": "alert",
   "calm": 60.0,
   "watch": 100.0,
   "alert": 130.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "Yahoo ^MOVE",
   "why": "Treasury-market dysfunction, live",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "market",
   "name": "VIX / VIX3M term structure",
   "value": 0.85,
   "unit": "ratio",
   "score": 0.0,
   "band": "calm",
   "calm": 0.85,
   "watch": 1.0,
   "alert": 1.15,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "Yahoo ^VIX / ^VIX3M",
   "why": "backwardation means dealers are paying up for immediate risk cover",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "flank",
   "name": "Japan 10y JGB yield",
   "value": 3.1,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 8.0,
   "band": "acute",
   "calm": 0.5,
   "watch": 2.5,
   "alert": 3.5,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "MoF daily JGB CSV (2026/10/6, cached)",
   "why": "the funding leg of the global carry trade - Japan is the largest foreign holder of Treasuries",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "flank",
   "name": "Japan 30y JGB yield",
   "value": 4.17,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 8.3,
   "band": "acute",
   "calm": 1.0,
   "watch": 3.5,
   "alert": 4.5,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "MoF daily JGB CSV (cached)",
   "why": "long-end JGBs are what force Japanese lifers home; no free history for anchors",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "flank",
   "name": "Yen, 3m change vs dollar",
   "value": -2.0,
   "unit": "% 3m",
   "score": 4.3,
   "band": "watch",
   "calm": 4.0,
   "watch": -3.0,
   "alert": -10.0,
   "direction": -1,
   "source": "Yahoo JPY=X",
   "why": "a FIRMING yen is the carry unwind firing (falling value = stress)",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "flank",
   "name": "Euro area 10y yield (ECB, daily)",
   "value": 3.5,
   "unit": "%",
   "score": 6.7,
   "band": "alert",
   "calm": 1.5,
   "watch": 3.0,
   "alert": 4.5,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "ECB Data Portal YC series (daily)",
   "why": "the euro long end - the other half of the France story, daily",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  },
  {
   "cat": "flank",
   "name": "France - Germany 10y spread",
   "value": 82.0,
   "unit": "bp",
   "score": 3.2,
   "band": "watch",
   "calm": 50.0,
   "watch": 100.0,
   "alert": 200.0,
   "direction": 1,
   "source": "FRED IRLTLT01FRM156N / IRLTLT01DEM156N MONTHLY (approx 2-month lag)",
   "why": "the euro core losing its risk-free premium - the belief the whole curve rests on",
   "asof": null,
   "stale": false
  }
 ],
 "category_scores": {
  "rates": 4.3,
  "fiscal": 6.2,
  "foreign": 2.6,
  "credit": 2.6,
  "funding": 0.1,
  "absorption": 1.1,
  "market": 3.0,
  "flank": 6.1
 },
 "context": [
  {
   "name": "Gold, 12m change",
   "value": 5.1,
   "unit": "% 12m",
   "source": "Yahoo GC=F",
   "why": "the classic reserve asset"
  },
  {
   "name": "Silver, 12m change",
   "value": 27.9,
   "unit": "% 12m",
   "source": "Yahoo SI=F",
   "why": "monetary demand broadening to the higher-beta metal"
  },
  {
   "name": "Bitcoin, 12m change",
   "value": -29.7,
   "unit": "% 12m",
   "source": "Yahoo BTC-USD",
   "why": "in 2026 BTC trades as a high-beta RISK asset, not a debasement hedge - the escape valve reads SHUT"
  },
  {
   "name": "Private-credit proxy (BIZD), drawdown from 52w high",
   "value": -18.6,
   "unit": "%",
   "source": "Yahoo BIZD",
   "why": "private-credit marks are quarterly; the listed BDC price is the only daily read"
  },
  {
   "name": "Dollar liquidity buffer (reserves + reverse repo)",
   "value": 2.95,
   "unit": "$trn",
   "source": "FRED WRESBAL + RRPONTSYD",
   "why": "the cash stock that absorbs issuance - but it is ALREADY drained (RRP ~0), so the level is not a clean stress score"
  },
  {
   "name": "Fed USD swap lines outstanding",
   "value": 207.0,
   "unit": "$mn",
   "source": "FRED SWPT",
   "why": "drawings prove an offshore dollar squeeze is live - coincident, not leading"
  },
  {
   "name": "Crypto escape-valve verdict (BTC vs gold, 12m)",
   "value": null,
   "unit": "",
   "source": "Yahoo GC=F / BTC-USD",
   "why": "ESCAPE VALVE SHUT - BTC -29.8% 12m while gold +5.1%, so crypto is trading as a high-beta risk asset, NOT as a sovereign hedge"
  },
  {
   "name": "US 10y swap spread (dealer capacity)",
   "value": null,
   "unit": "",
   "source": "NO KEYLESS SOURCE - needs a paid feed",
   "why": "the panel's most valuable unavailable input; named here so it is not forgotten"
  }
 ],
 "moves": [],
 "tripwires": [
  {
   "name": "30y Treasury yield",
   "value": 5.64,
   "alert": 5.75,
   "unit": "%",
   "to_alert": 0.11,
   "score": 8.9,
   "span_pct": 22.0
  },
  {
   "name": "Refinancing gap: effective coupon vs 10y",
   "value": 1.74,
   "alert": 2.0,
   "unit": "pp",
   "to_alert": 0.26,
   "score": 8.7,
   "span_pct": 26.0
  },
  {
   "name": "Net interest / federal receipts",
   "value": 21.13,
   "alert": 23.0,
   "unit": "% of receipts",
   "to_alert": 1.87,
   "score": 8.4,
   "span_pct": 31.2
  },
  {
   "name": "Japan 30y JGB yield",
   "value": 4.17,
   "alert": 4.5,
   "unit": "%",
   "to_alert": 0.33,
   "score": 8.3,
   "span_pct": 33.0
  },
  {
   "name": "Japan 10y JGB yield",
   "value": 3.1,
   "alert": 3.5,
   "unit": "%",
   "to_alert": 0.4,
   "score": 8.0,
   "span_pct": 40.0
  },
  {
   "name": "Deficit, annualized from monthly",
   "value": 6.15,
   "alert": 7.0,
   "unit": "% of GDP",
   "to_alert": 0.85,
   "score": 7.9,
   "span_pct": 42.5
  },
  {
   "name": "10y Treasury yield",
   "value": 5.27,
   "alert": 6.0,
   "unit": "%",
   "to_alert": 0.73,
   "score": 7.6,
   "span_pct": 48.7
  },
  {
   "name": "Federal debt / GDP",
   "value": 123.6,
   "alert": 135.0,
   "unit": "%",
   "to_alert": 11.4,
   "score": 7.2,
   "span_pct": 57.0
  }
 ],
 "has_prior": true,
 "weights": {
  "rates": 0.17,
  "fiscal": 0.2,
  "foreign": 0.08,
  "credit": 0.15,
  "funding": 0.08,
  "absorption": 0.08,
  "market": 0.09,
  "flank": 0.15
 },
 "method": "0 at calm anchor, 5 at watch, 10 at alert, capped at 10",
 "not_a_forecast": "Pressure gauge only. No collapse date, no trade trigger. See the action ladder in /root/.hermes/notes/sovereign-risk/",
 "smoothed_4wk": 3.9,
 "smoothed_n": 1
}